This Week With The Professor: Post Positions

Today, The Professor answers a question submitted by David L. on post positions. David L. said, “I found a very exciting race to wager on. The long shots to me seemed to be perfectly boxed while the favorites appeared to be in a more difficult situation. This is exactly what a smart bettor looks for. I went deep with my dollars and was confident on a nice return. Yes, sure enough my long shots ran one two three while the two favorites were off the board. Then the slap in the face. The price of my trifecta was only about $50. The numbers that came in were 1-2-8. That combination probably comes in more than any others. I assumed that the other players had simply pounded that combination and it was over-bet. When handicapping, should I probably avoid races where my top picks are in statistically better posts, regardless of the tote board odds? Or was I making a good wagering choice and just had the bad luck of someone blindly making a $20 trifecta box?”

dog_question

There are no easy answers to this question. I can’t really comment on the specific instance that you are referring to for several reasons: One, the odds that you are seeing may be win odds and may not reflect the play those dogs are getting in the exotic pools. Second, maybe several larger bettors have seen what you have seen in these longshots and played them in exotics only and not in the win pool, not wanting to tip off the public. Third, when you see a payoff lower than what you anticipated, it is most likely the second scenario and not some random person betting numbers, as those bettors tend to make small wagers.
While not knowing what happened in the race that you are referring to, it is true that the #1 and #8 post positions will be over bet; that does not mean that you should shy away from wagering on greyhounds that are in those post positions. As always the key to winning wagering is getting value for your play. To get value on a key dog that you know will be over bet means that you may have to be more precise in finding the right dogs to play behind or with the hound that you like.  You should keep in mind the fact that these greyhounds will be over bet and adjust your expectations accordingly. That being said, I have written before about these posts being over bet, and the value of trying to find false favorites who are in these posts. The name of the game is beating favorites (most of the time), and if you can find false favorites and they happen to be in the one post, all the better.
Thank you for the question, David L!

Do you have a question for The Professor? Leave a comment below and you could receive a $2 wagering credit to your Greyhound Channel account if your question is featured! Tune into our podcast, Catch the Action with Greyhound Channel, for news and more greyt tips from The Professor.

6 thoughts on “This Week With The Professor: Post Positions

  1. My question has to do with on-track greyhounds who interfere with other greyhounds while racing. How many races are they allowed by the racing judge to interfere before having to be re-trained or re-schooled. Just recently I noticed a greyhound at Derby Lane that would actually stop right past the finish line to interfere with other dogs behind it. Would this greyhound be ticketed since the interference was past the finish line? Is it indicated in the program? This happened twice in a row by the same greyhound after crossing the finish line. The greyhound finished fourth in both races.

    Thanks for your answer.

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  2. I have been or a losing streak for 3 weeks. Friday night I got a 10:1 long shot on top in my trifecta and it paid zilch. I play the Cycle contest for fun, but if you lose money its not fun. Should not complain, I’ve been coming out in the black for 3 to 4 years in a row. I think in order to improve my ROI I will need to be more selective. With only 12 races instead of 18 to 20 like before, I need to accept that false favorites and high quality long shots might not be in a race for me every week. The 50 cent trifectas, and $1 quinellas, just mean there will just be more winners in the jackpot. The days of $100 or $125 bonus is now $45 or $50. This could mean the difference of winning or losing in the long run. I need to stay away from races where the long shots I like are in the 1,2 and 8 boxes but focus on races where the false favorites are in those boxes instead. Its just a matter of being patient and not feeling compelled to wager. Just like shopping, wait for things to go on sale.

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  3. I got a question about 99:1 dogs that win at low handle tracks. If no one makes a win bet on the dog who wins, what happens to the win pool?

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    1. Hi David! The Professor said, “If there is $0 dollars on the greyhound that wins, the win payoff goes to the dog that ran second, if there is no money on the place dog, then it goes to the dog that ran third, etc.” Thanks for the greyt question!

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